Macro Context & Dealer Notes

Price was stretched after the Sept 17 news spike above 1.1900.

By Sept 18, we were at L3 exhaustion.

EMAs compressed under the 200, with ADR extended and plenty of room for a reversal.

Dealer trick: false push during London into 1.1840 to trap longs,

then NY session shift candle sent price into full drop.

Timing

Asian: Consolidation 1.1820–1.1835.

London: Stop hunt to 1.1840, set high of day.

NY: Shift candle confirmed reversal ~03:15 HST.

Full move completed in ~3 hours, 60 pips into 1.1760–1.1750.

Entry Plan

Trigger: Stop hunt wick + shift confirmation at NY open.

Entry Time (HST): ~03:15

Stop Loss: Just above 1.1845

Targets:

TP1: 1.1800

TP2: 1.1760

TP3: 1.1750

EMA Behavior

13/50 compressed under 200.

Retests of 200 rejected.

Slope bearish after London wick rejection.

TDI Behavior

London: Green spiked outside band (Shark Fin).

NY open: Divergence → price rising, TDI fading.

During drop: Green crossed red, strong angle,

riding band into ADR target.

Box Drawing Instructions

Trap Box: Asian high/low ~1.1815–1.1835.

Move Box: London push into 1.1840 false break.

Anchor Box: NY shift candle breaking 1.1820.

Behavioral Notes

Dealers faked a continuation to the upside.

Real intention: clean out longs before reversing.

Mistakes to Avoid

Jumping in during London before wick + shift confirmed.

Expecting continuation after ADR low was already hit.